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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Sunday, 15 June 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES FALL FURTHER ON LACK OF DEMANDS - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The BDI softened this week as all segments fell this week. The Panamax sector being most affected. The Cape index was down 3.51 pct w ...
Friday, 13 June 14
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 3% IN WEEK THAT ENDED JUNE 7, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 13 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON FALLING, DESPITE RESPITE OF THE CAPESIZE SECTOR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on its lacklustre performance overall, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) still hovering below the 1,000 point mark. Yest ...
Thursday, 12 June 14
INDONESIA SETS HBA FOR MONTH OF JUNE AT US$ 73.64
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised up first time in last four months the coal bench mark price. ...
Thursday, 12 June 14
HANDY : TA MARKET IS CONTINUING SOUTH WITH A DECREASE OF 26% W-O-W
Handy
The week started off with holidays in most European countries and the TA market is continuing south with a decrease of 26% w-o-w. We do see ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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