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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Thursday, 12 June 14
CONSOLIDATION IS THE ' NAME OF THE GAME' WHEN IT COMES TO SHIPYARDS ACROSS ASIA - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Intense competition, a swelling of new greenfield shipyards over the past few years mainly in China, especially prior to the 2008 global financial ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME AND REVENUE SLIPS 2.75% AND 6.73% RESPECTIVELY IN APRIL
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.8* b ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
BPI TOUCHING A NEW LOW FOR THE YEAR
The Dry Bulk market closed off the week positively, on the back of firming Capesize rates, while the market overall continues to face a very challe ...
Monday, 09 June 14
GOVT GETS TOUGH ON ILLEGAL MINING, SUSPENDS LICENSES - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has temporarily suspended the licenses of 62 mineral and coal transportation companies as part of its efforts to curb illegal mining ...
Monday, 09 June 14
INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3,Q4 OF 2014 AND Q1 2015: LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 continue last week’s trend or lost on day, week and on month according to Asia ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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