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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Friday, 06 June 14
RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 4.221 MMT OF COAL TO SOUTHERN ASIAN COUNTRIES IN MAY
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.58 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
RBCT SOUTH AFRICA SHIPPED 21% LESS COAL IN APRIL COMPARED TO MARCH EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PANAMAX : THIS WEEK STARTED IN A SLOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
After last week's silent and unexciting week we see some more activity this week, especially from the South American market. The rates ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 2.91 MMT OF COAL IN THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The figure constitutes a 4.30 percent higher compared to the previous week, following a week on week decreased of 19.13 percent recor ...
Wednesday, 04 June 14
SKULD: DIVERSIFICATION AND A ROBUST BOTTOM LINE
In February, I was delighted to ring in the new policy year with the Skuld team following a solid renewal round and a strong year. 2013 was, in man ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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