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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Thursday, 29 May 14
PEABODY ENERGY CHAIRMAN RECEIVES WCA AWARD
The World Coal Association has presented Gregory H. Boyce, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), with the 2014 Chairm ...
Thursday, 29 May 14
HANDY : THE SUPRAS ARE BEING TRADED AROUND 13K FOR SHORTER UPTO 1 YEAR PERIOD
Handy
The week started off with bank holidays in London and very little happening. This trend has continued and we believe it will continue into ...
Wednesday, 28 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure during this past week, with all indices pointing down compared to the previous Friday. Th ...
Tuesday, 27 May 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.13% LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 26 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Monday, 26 May 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP Q1' 15 DELIVERIES CLOSED AT US$ 59.40 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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