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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Monday, 26 May 14
Q3 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST 2.24% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.24 percent month on month and closed at US$ 73.88 per mt as on F ...
Monday, 26 May 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY RISES BY 78% IN DWT TONNAGE OVER THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE YEARS, AS OWNERS INVEST$40.5 BN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have plunged into newbuilding orders during the first four months of the year, as overall newbuilding business ended for the first four ...
Sunday, 25 May 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM SOUTH KALIMANTAN TO EAST COAST INDIAN PORTS WERE ASSESSED AT $9.50/MT
COALspot.com: The BDI was closed at 964 points down by 6.13 pct week on week. The Cape Index was lost 172 points or 11.24% week on week and closing ...
Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appe ...
Friday, 23 May 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS 1.8% WEEK ENDED MAY 17, 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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