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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Monday, 09 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP Q3 14 DELIVERIES LOST 4.61% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.62 per mt a ...
Sunday, 08 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR PANAMXES TO REMAIN VOLATILE; NO IMPROVEMENTS SEEN OVER THE WEEK
COALspot.com: Cape index increase pushes BDI index to 989 points week on week. The BDI firmed up by 5.88 pct and closed at 989 points week ended 6 ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
EVERYTHING CHANGES, AND NOTHING ABIDES - HERACLITUS
A couple of weeks ago, and while everyone was focusing on the struggling freight market, Russia and China made history by signing a three-decade lo ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
FIRST BITE AT ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE - BIMCO
In recent years a number of countries have introduced anti-corruption legislation which, unfortunately, fails to recognise the practical implicatio ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
U.S. MONTHLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN MAY 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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