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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Wednesday, 25 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS ON RISE; EARNINGS FALL ON LOWER SELLING PRICES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.84* ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET REACHED FRESH LOWS FOR THE YEAR, SAYS INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a slight decrease, but this image of stability is merely representative of freight rat ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US ...
Tuesday, 24 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL MINER TARGETS RP 313 BILLION IPO
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal miner PT Mitrabara Adiperdana is aiming to raise up to Rp 313 billion to Rp 368 billion (approximately $26.133 millio ...
Monday, 23 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY LOST 8.60% Y-O-Y;4.80% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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