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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Wednesday, 30 July 14
CAPES SEEMED TO BE STRANDED AT THE SAME LEVELS; PANAMAXES MANAGED TO SLIGHTLY REVIVE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market took a breath this past week, as both Panamaxes and Supras started to see a small influx of activity, which was j ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
TOTAL SELLS ITS SOUTH AFRICAN COAL MINING ASSETS TO EXXARO
Total has signed an agreement with Exxaro Resources Ltd for the sale of its 100% stake in Total Coal South Africa (TCSA), its coal-producing affili ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
GENCO: DRY BULK SHIPPING VALUATIONS NO LONGER ANCHORED TO DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHOD - WEIL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Discounted cash flow analysis is a mainstay among the valuation methodologies used by restructuring professionals and bank ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
SHIP OWNERS' DEMAND OF NEW VESSELS DENTED AS A RESULT OF LOWER FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The sharp downward direction of dry bulk freight rates has had a negative impact on investors’ secondhand buying appetite that wait to see th ...
Monday, 28 July 14
Q3' 14, SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED $ 0.08 DAY ON DAY AND $ 0.68 WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 increased by just US$ 0.08 day on day and US$ 0.68 week on week. The swap was lost U ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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