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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Friday, 22 August 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.4% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.60 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
PREDICTIONS FROM VARIOUS SHIPPERS AND MINING INDUSTRY FOR 2ND HALF YEAR AND ESPECIALLY Q4 IS POSITIVE
Handy
The activity has increased in both hemispheres this week and we see rates edging up on all trades. TA´s are now paying around 8k whic ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
SHIP OWNERS KEEP SHYING AWAY FOR NEW SHIP INVESTMENTS, OVERALL TREND IS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have remained in the sidelines of the Sale & Purchasing market for second hand vessels, during most of August, while they also slow ...
Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the loomi ...
Monday, 18 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES TO RISE TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS THIS YEAR - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Capesize rates ended last week at $15,561/day, which marked a week-on-week increase of $6,167 (66%). Capesize rates have been a ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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