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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Tuesday, 26 August 14
GOVT ON TRACK TO LIMIT COAL OUTPUT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has announced that it will proceed with plans to cap the production of coal next year, a move aimed not only at protecting the envir ...
Monday, 25 August 14
4TH ANNUAL FLOATING TERMINALS
4th Annual Floating Terminals
18-20 Nov 2014
Intercontinental Jakarta Midplaza,
Indonesia
Web Site
The Floating Terminal c ...
Monday, 25 August 14
THE BALTIC DRY IS JUMPING, BUT DON'T DRAW ANY BROAD CONCLUSIONS - NASDAQ
Those who consistently preach doom and gloom and see an economic apocalypse around every corner would make me laugh if it weren’t for the fac ...
Monday, 25 August 14
COAL CEOS: DEMISE OF COAL 'EXAGGERATED' - MARK WILCOX
By Mark Wilcox
Heads of some of the largest coal companies in Wyoming are saying the demise of coal has been exaggerated, though the industry def ...
Monday, 25 August 14
INDO COAL SWAPS W-O-W: NEGATIVE; M-O-M: POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.28%) day on day and US$ 0.65 (-1.19%) per mt week on week. Th ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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