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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Thursday, 28 August 14
PANAMAX: OWNERS CAN GET AROUND USD 16000 FOR A FRONTHAUL; PERIOD MARKET - VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The activity and sentiment is improving in the Atlantic with the general TA rate is up about US$ 800 w-o-w. We see more South American carg ...
Thursday, 28 August 14
BANPU REPORTS HIGHER FIRST-HALF YEAR RESULTS FOR 2014
COALspot.com: Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) reports higher first half-year financial results for 2014 having its gross profit increasing 3 p ...
Wednesday, 27 August 14
FREIGHT MARKET: IS THE MARKET IN A RECOVERY MOOD? - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Is the market in a recovery mood?
August is typically a time when the shipping industry takes it easy… charter-ers book their requireme ...
Tuesday, 26 August 14
4TH ANNUAL ASIA NICKEL
4th Annual Asia Nickel
19-20 Nov 2014
Grand Hyatt Jakarta, Indonesia
Web Site
Asia’s Premier Nickel Conference
Regulation in ...
Tuesday, 26 August 14
DESPITE LOW DRY BULK RATES, BULKER PRICES ARE STILL HIGH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Traditionally, August tends to be a month of slow activity in the sale and purchasing market and this year has been no exception. However, as shipb ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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