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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Monday, 25 August 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY OVER DAY AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.30 (+0.44%) day on day and decreased US$ 0.20 (- ...
Sunday, 24 August 14
SEA FREIGHT MARKETS STARTING TO LOOK POSITIVE; CAPES DRIVE FREIGHTS HIGHER
COALspot.com: The freight market has strengthen further this week with BDI up 7.19 pct week on week. The BDI was closed at 1,088 points while the B ...
Friday, 22 August 14
INDIAN IRON ORE ROYALTY RISE NOT LIKELY TO HURT STEELMAKERS' MARGINS - FITCH
Fitch Ratings does not expect an increase in India's iron ore royalty rates to have a major impact on the profitability of steel producers in t ...
Friday, 22 August 14
ARBITRATION CLAUSE IN LOU HELD TO REPLACE CHARTERPARTY ARBITRATION CLAUSE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Claimants had claims for cargo damage against the vessel Owners arising under four bills of lading. The vessel was th ...
Friday, 22 August 14
ICAP ENERGY LAUNCHES GLOBAL COKING COAL DERIVATIVES TRADING
First contract completed and cleared on CME
COALspot.com: ICAP Energy, the energy business of ICAP plc, announces today that it has successful ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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