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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Monday, 18 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $58.60 FOR SEPTEMBER 2015; UP $4 FROM SEPTEMBER 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.27%) day on day and US$ 0.75 (-1.36%) per mt week on week. Th ...
Monday, 18 August 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PERFORMED WELL THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.45 (+0.66%) day on day and US$ 0.30 (+0.44%)&nbs ...
Saturday, 16 August 14
HIGH DEMAND OF IRON ORE SHIPMENTS PUSHED CAPE INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: This week's freight market was buoyant with Cape and panamax index seeing a big jump pushing the BDI above 1,000 points week on c ...
Friday, 15 August 14
5TH ANNUAL POWER AND ELECTRICITY INDONESIA
5TH ANNUAL POWER AND ELECTRICITY INDONESIA
13-16 October 2014
Grand Hyatt Jakarta, Indonesia
Web Site
The country’s definitive ...
Thursday, 14 August 14
U.S. STEAM COAL IMPORTS REMAIN DOWN SHARPLY FROM HISTORIC HIGH IN 2007, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. steam coal imports at power plants have fallen significantly from their peak level of more than 30 million tons in 2007 to less ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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