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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Thursday, 14 August 14
INDIA'S PLAN TO START AN INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM AND TO INVEST US$ 1 TRILLION BY 2017 WILL SURELY AFFECT THE DRY BULK TRADE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic Supra market has continued its improving sentiment with rates climbing and TA´s are now up about US$ 900 w-o-w, said Fea ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
WEEKLY MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS SNP BROKER
Being at the peak of the holiday season, August is, as usual, the quietest month in terms of snp transactions, yet it is also a time very critical ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
WHAT DOES PROJECT CARGO REALLY MEAN TO INSURERS?
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Richard Kamppari-Baker, claims manager of FP Marine Risks, explains the challenges of project cargo risk assessment from ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL AGAIN CLOSE TO 57 MONTHS LOWS
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price in August. HBA for the month of A ...
Monday, 11 August 14
LARGEST CHINESE TRADE SURPLUS EVER RECORDED IN JULY - BIMCO
China recorded a trade surplus of USD 47.3 billion in July 2014. The record high surplus came on the back of very strong export growth while import ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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