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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Friday, 08 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES ARE REMAINING MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED AT BOTTOM LOW LEVELS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
An improving sentiment with stronger rates and fair demand for prompt tonnage in the Atlantic, both on the Continent and in the Med for the ...
Friday, 08 August 14
U.S PRODUCED 35.80 MMST OF COAL IN JULY; UP 7.89 MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.50 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 08 August 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.52% MORE COAL IN JULY FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped 14,036,947 t ...
Thursday, 07 August 14
BULKING UP IN AFRICA: CHINA INFLATES SEABORNE MINERALS EXPORT TRADE - RICHARD SCOTT
Africa’s profile as an exporter of dry bulk commodities is rising. Responding to growing import demand from China, India and other buyers in ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
CAPES: BUSINESS INTEREST REMAINS SOFT; CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Despite the considerable pressure witnessed in the freight market for most of the size segments, the Dry Bulk Index was able to note ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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