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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Saturday, 30 August 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE NOTICE: THERMAL COAL IMPORT PRICES EXTREMELY LOW - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: Both Indonesian and Australian thermal coal prices are at the lowest levels seen this decade, with Indonesia's monthly benchmark ...
Saturday, 30 August 14
RECOVERY IN SIGHT FOR THE DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - DREWRY SHIPPING CONSULTANTS
Despite weak freight rates so far this year, Dry Bulk shipping earnings are forecast to recover as demand for both major and minor bulk commodities ...
Friday, 29 August 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.3 PERCENT, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 29 August 14
ADARO'S PROFITS SINK FURTHER AMID FALL IN COAL PRICES - JP
Adaro Energy, one of the country’s largest coal miners, has reported a 31 percent drop in net profit in the first half of this year as global ...
Friday, 29 August 14
CHINESE LIGNITE IMPORTS: QUANTITY OVER QUALITY? - CLARKSONS
In the first half of 2014, Chinese seaborne coal imports declined 0.4% y-o-y to 148mt, largely reflecting a 3.3% fall in imports of steam coal. Mea ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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