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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 July 14
INDONESIA'S MINERAL EXPORT BAN: CHINA UNDER PRESSURE? - CLARKSONS
In January 2014, Indonesia introduced new regulations on exports of unprocessed minerals. Exports of some minerals have been heavily taxed, whilst ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
ASIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL USERS' GROUP CONFERENCE
Press Release: Registration Open for Fourth Annual Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users’ Group Conference
Register today for this year&r ...
Monday, 21 July 14
25% OF INDIA'S POWER PLANTS WERE HAVING SUPER CRITICAL COAL STOCK - COAL AND POWER MINISTER
25% of India’s power plants were having super critical coal stock; power utilities have also been advised to enhance the import of coal - Coa ...
Monday, 21 July 14
INDONESIA'S STATE CONTROLLED COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM ENJOYED HIGHER SELLING PRICE DURING THIS STORMY MARKET
COALspot.com: PT Bukit Asam, the Indonesian government controlled coal miner announced today that, the company has produced 7.70 million tons of co ...
Monday, 21 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 DELIVERY SWAPS LOST 16% SINCE JANUARY 17, 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. Market is not showing any positive trend in near future.
...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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