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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 20 July 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNWARD TREND
COALspot.com: The market continued its downward trend this week as all segments were down compared to last week. The Cape and Panamax indices being ...
Friday, 18 July 14
3RD CHINA INTERNATIONAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Building on the massive success of the past 2 shale gas programs that has generated huge success by attracting 500+ industry players, and intrig ...
Friday, 18 July 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP BY 1.4% TO 18.3 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 17 July 14
PANAMAX : MARKET HAS COOLED DOWN AGAIN TO LOW AND DEPRESSED LEVELS
Handy
The supra market remains pretty flat in the Atlantic while for the smaller sizes there has been little reported with ships chasing business ...
Thursday, 17 July 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT WISE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CURRENTLY LOW THERMAL COAL PRICES AND SHIPPING RATES - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
With thermal coal import prices (and also shipping rates) very low at present, India's government would be very wise to take advantage of curre ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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