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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 20 July 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNWARD TREND
COALspot.com: The market continued its downward trend this week as all segments were down compared to last week. The Cape and Panamax indices being ...
Friday, 18 July 14
3RD CHINA INTERNATIONAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Building on the massive success of the past 2 shale gas programs that has generated huge success by attracting 500+ industry players, and intrig ...
Friday, 18 July 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP BY 1.4% TO 18.3 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 17 July 14
PANAMAX : MARKET HAS COOLED DOWN AGAIN TO LOW AND DEPRESSED LEVELS
Handy
The supra market remains pretty flat in the Atlantic while for the smaller sizes there has been little reported with ships chasing business ...
Thursday, 17 July 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT WISE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CURRENTLY LOW THERMAL COAL PRICES AND SHIPPING RATES - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
With thermal coal import prices (and also shipping rates) very low at present, India's government would be very wise to take advantage of curre ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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