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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 23 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In Australia, the world’s largest mining group, BHP Billiton, will beat the iron ore export target of more than 220 million tonnes for 2014. ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
HARD COAL 2013: THE WORLD'S SECOND-MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY SOURCE AND GUARANTOR FOR THE SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLIES DURING TIMES OF CRISIS
Hard coal is again in 2013 the fastest-growing fossil primary energy source in the world. As shown in the BP Statistical Review 2014, it covered ab ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
INDONESIAN ELECTION RESULT ENCOURAGING FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla has been announced as the official winner of Indonesia's presidential election. Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, is viewed as a ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
THE CURRENT COAL PRICES ARE UNPROFITABLE FOR MINERS; COAL PRICES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE - FITCH
COALspot.com: The Fitch Ratings expect the benchmark Newcastle coal prices (currently at about USD70/MT) to gradually increase.
Fitch's la ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3' 14 DOWN 5.21%; Q4' 14 DOWN 3.56%; Q1' 15 DOWN 4.75% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 flat on day, weak week on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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