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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 28 July 14
Q3' 14, SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED $ 0.08 DAY ON DAY AND $ 0.68 WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 increased by just US$ 0.08 day on day and US$ 0.68 week on week. The swap was lost U ...
Monday, 28 July 14
S. KOREA'S KOSPO SEEKS 148K T OF 4700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co Ltd (KOSPO) is seeking 148,000 tonnes of 4,700 kcal/kg NCV steaming coal for shipment between October to Nove ...
Monday, 28 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. The swap for Q3, Q4 and Q1 2015 showing slight improvement ...
Sunday, 27 July 14
RAMADAN HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON CHARTER RATES FROM INDONESIA - VISTAAR INDIA
COALspot.com: The freight rates were almost steady as very slight improvement in BDI by about 1 pct. The BDI was at 739 points after improvin ...
Saturday, 26 July 14
COAL MINING COMPANIES CLOSED TEMPORARILY - THE JAKARTA POST
The Sarolangun regency administration in Jambi has suspended the operations of 10 coal mining companies in line with a circular issued by Regent Ce ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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