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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 August 14
Q1' 15 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 69.37 ON 1 AUGUST 2014; A $ 1.10 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Coal swap prices are showing a positive move upward this past week. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4, Q1 and Q2 2015 show ...
Sunday, 03 August 14
LACK OF COAL SHIPMENTS FROM FAR EAST/SE ASIA, THE PRESSURE ON CHARTER RATES CONTINUED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: This week, the freight rates were almost flat as charter rates were also almost steady from last week.
The BDI was up by 2.59 pc ...
Friday, 01 August 14
UNCERTAINTY IN ASIAN COAL MARKETS WHERE INDEX-LINKED PRICING DOMINATES - SGX
COALspot.com: In the past 3 years, seaborne thermal coal markets have been in a state of constant oversupply.
Reuters expects this oversupply ...
Friday, 01 August 14
U.S PRODUCED 19.4 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 31 July 14
CAPESIZE: CARGO VOLUMES, COAL IN PARTICULAR, PRESENTLY NOT SUFFICIENT TO EMPLOY A GROWING FLEET - FERNLEYS
Handy
Both the Atlantic and Pacific has improved in the supramax segment over the last week, said Fernleys in Its latest weekly report . There we ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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