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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 August 14
CAPES: BUSINESS INTEREST REMAINS SOFT; CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Despite the considerable pressure witnessed in the freight market for most of the size segments, the Dry Bulk Index was able to note ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
Recent reports that Indonesia’s ban on exports of metal ore concentrates was lifted for the first time in six months for two of its biggest m ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
SGX SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHED NEW SGX COAL PRODUCTS
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (‘SGX’) has announced that, the exchange has successfully launched its new Coking and Thermal Coal pro ...
Monday, 04 August 14
ANNUAL SECOND HALF SURGE IN BRAZILIAN IRON ORE EXPORTS ABOUT TO BEGIN - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Great strength in the capesize market has all along been set to occur during the second half of this year, as that is when Brazilian ...
Monday, 04 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP INCHES UP DESPITE LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 increased US$ 0.15 day on day and US$ 0.13 per mt week on week. But, the swap was lo ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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