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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 July 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP AROUND 3.5% WEEK ENDED JULY 19
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.00 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIA'S JUNE 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME DOWN 6.82%; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.70* ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
HANDY: SOUTH AFRICA SOFTENED A BIT, HERE RATES ARE AT AROUND 8K +150K BB FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The handy market in the Atlantic is going sideways and a tick down on low activity. Levels hoovering around USD 5k on Supras. The SMX marke ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTERS ARE REQUIRED TO OBTAIN ET-BATUBARA UNDER LATEST TRADE MINISTRY'S NEW REGULATION
COALspot.com: Indonesia's trade ministry has issued regulation No. 39/M-DAG/PER/7/2014 which is requires exporters of power plant coal as ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
PANAMAXES WERE BACK ON A DOWNWARD COURSE; CAPES WERE FEELING THE MOST PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market was on a downward spiral this week, with the BDI noting another week-on-week decline of the magnitude of 10% this ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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