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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 July 14
INDIA BUDGET HAS LIMITED SHORT TERM IMPACT ON POWER SECTOR - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says that the measures announced relating to India's electricity sector in the budget for FY2015 are directionally correct but in ...
Tuesday, 15 July 14
INDONESIA'S TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION REACHED ANOTHER HIGH DURING THE FIRST SIX MONTHS; GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TO RAISE ROYALTIES
COALspot.com: Indonesia's total coal production reached 213 million tons during January through June, up by 7.6 percent y-o-y. Coal output in I ...
Monday, 14 July 14
THE END OF THE ERA OF HEAVY FUEL OIL IN MARITIME SHIPPING - ICCT
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Since the 1960s, heavy fuel oil (HFO) has been the king of marine fuels. Viscous, dirty, yet inexpensive and widely avail ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 54.80
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 LOST 17.29% SINCE EARLY JANUARY 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops U ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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