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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 July 14
INDIA BUDGET HAS LIMITED SHORT TERM IMPACT ON POWER SECTOR - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says that the measures announced relating to India's electricity sector in the budget for FY2015 are directionally correct but in ...
Tuesday, 15 July 14
INDONESIA'S TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION REACHED ANOTHER HIGH DURING THE FIRST SIX MONTHS; GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TO RAISE ROYALTIES
COALspot.com: Indonesia's total coal production reached 213 million tons during January through June, up by 7.6 percent y-o-y. Coal output in I ...
Monday, 14 July 14
THE END OF THE ERA OF HEAVY FUEL OIL IN MARITIME SHIPPING - ICCT
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Since the 1960s, heavy fuel oil (HFO) has been the king of marine fuels. Viscous, dirty, yet inexpensive and widely avail ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 54.80
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 LOST 17.29% SINCE EARLY JANUARY 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops U ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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