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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 July 14
SGX EXPANDS ACROSS THE BULKS WITH NEW COAL PRODUCTS
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (SGX) is expanding its bulk commodity derivatives offering by launching new coking and thermal coal products on 4 ...
Thursday, 10 July 14
HANDY: SMALL INCREASE; PANAMAX: POSITIVE TONE; CAPESIZE: PAPER VALUES REMAIN WEEK
Handy
It is a general increase in activity in both hemispheres whereas rates have just experienced a small increase. In the Feast we see stable a ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIP INVESTMENTS ARE TRENDING LOWER
Most ship owners are deeming current ship prices on the high side, refraining from making serious commitments in new acquisitions or newbuilding or ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADVISED POWER UTILITIES TO INCREASE COAL IMPORTS
COALspot.com: The government of India has advised power utilities to increase coal imports to meet fuel shortages and those that have fuel supply p ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
PANAMAX MARKET FINALLY CORRECTING UPWARDS; AVERAGE TC MORE THAN DOUBLING WEEK ON WEEK - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has closed off on Friday on a more positive note, with most segments noting weekly gains and the Panamax market finally correct ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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