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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low p ...
Tuesday, 08 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL AGAIN IN JULY; LOST 1.62%
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia again revised down the coal bench mark price in July. HBA for month of J ...
Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is ...
Monday, 07 July 14
INDONESIA STATE-CONTROLLED COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM TO TRADE COAL ON-LINE THROUGH JFX
COALspot.com: Indonesian state owned coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) has teamed up with Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX) to sell ...
Monday, 07 July 14
RBCT, THE WORLD'S SINGLE LARGEST EXPORT COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 31.91 MMT OF COAL IN H1 2014
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 31.91 million ton ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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