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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 30 June 14
WEEKLY CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES; Q1'15 LOST US$ 4.55 PMT IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 fell US$ 5.25 month on month on Friday, dipping under $69 a tone. The CFR South Ch ...
Monday, 30 June 14
INDO - INDIA FREIGHT RATES CONTINUE TO WEAK
COALspot.com: The latest dry Index shows that average all-in spot freight declined, the Panamax and Supramax slipping by 9.11 percent and 4% respec ...
Friday, 27 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LOOKING FOR UPSIDE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept up its lacklustre performance during the past week, as evidenced by the course of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The BDI ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
PANAMAX : A PACIFIC ROUND PAYS AROUND US$ 3K DAILY - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
In the Atlantic there has been little activity which again has caused rates to slip across all trades. TA´s are now down to US$ 5,500 ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 750K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR 3CY
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) has issued a new tender for supply of total 250,000 MT of bituminous co ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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