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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 July 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUED TO BLEED FOR ANOTHER WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market succumbed to mounting pressure this past week, while the Capesize market proved unable to “save the day&rdq ...
Wednesday, 02 July 14
HANDY BULKERS PROVE TO BE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS OVER THE PAST WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Handy dry bulker proved to be the most sought after ship by ship owners active in the second hand market, which saw a slight decline in terms o ...
Wednesday, 02 July 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
After 6 months, 57 ministerial meetings and 67 political agreements, the journey of the Greek Presidency in the EU reached its end yesterday; only ...
Tuesday, 01 July 14
INDIAN POWER PLANT COAL STOCKPILES VERY LOW
COALspot.com: According to today's Weekly Dry Bulk Report published by Commodore Research, Indian power plant coal stockpiles have now fallen t ...
Monday, 30 June 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL PRICES ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO RECOVER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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