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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 June 14
COAL DIVESTMENT CAMPAIGNS COME WITH RISKY UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES - WCA
Last week I presented to the Expert Group on investments in coal and petroleum companies, the body set up to advise the Norwegian Government on whe ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS ON RISE; EARNINGS FALL ON LOWER SELLING PRICES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.84* ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET REACHED FRESH LOWS FOR THE YEAR, SAYS INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a slight decrease, but this image of stability is merely representative of freight rat ...
Tuesday, 24 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL MINER TARGETS RP 313 BILLION IPO
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal miner PT Mitrabara Adiperdana is aiming to raise up to Rp 313 billion to Rp 368 billion (approximately $26.133 millio ...
Monday, 23 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY LOST 8.60% Y-O-Y;4.80% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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