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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 June 14
COAL SWAPS DROPS FURTHER MONTH ON MONTH ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 6.91 percent month on month and closed at US$ 69.00 per mt a ...
Sunday, 22 June 14
THE PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA SLIPPED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, fell slightly on Friday ...
Friday, 20 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR UPSIDE ON ROBUST SEABORNE IRON ORE TRADE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn’t been able to justify the heightened expectations this year. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index managed to inch forwar ...
Friday, 20 June 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.8% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 19 June 14
PANAMAX: VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING THE ALL TIME LOW RECORD - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Supra-Handy market is experiencing the same market slow down as its bigger sister markets however not to the same extent. We see TA rat ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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