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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 July 14
US: WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coa ...
Friday, 04 July 14
PARAM MITRA COAL RESOURCES SECURES US$ 7.5M INVESTMENT FROM TEMBUSU PARTNERS
Param Mitra Coal Resources Pte Ltd (“PMCR”), which owns two operating coal mines in Indonesia, has secured from Singapore private equit ...
Thursday, 03 July 14
BUMI TRANSFERS 19% OF KPC STAKE VALUED AT US$ 950 MILLION TO CIC
COALspot.com: PT. Bumi Resources announces that 19% of its holdings in Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC), valued at US$ 950 million, has been transferred to ...
Thursday, 03 July 14
PANAMAX : IN THE ATLANTIC, OWNERS ARE WILLING TO FIX AT ABOUT $2.5K PER DAY - FEARNEYS
Handy
In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Fearneys noted that, this week seems to have been more of a wait and see game between owners and ch ...
Wednesday, 02 July 14
NEWMONT FILES FOR INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION ON ORE EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA POST
PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), a subsidiary of United States-based Newmont Corporation, has filed for international arbitration against the govern ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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