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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 July 14
RBCT, THE WORLD'S SINGLE LARGEST EXPORT COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 31.91 MMT OF COAL IN H1 2014
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 31.91 million ton ...
Monday, 07 July 14
SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 12% LESS COAL IN JUNE COMPARED TO MAY EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 4.91 million tons ...
Monday, 07 July 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $ 54.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 07 July 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops US$ 5.47 month on month on Friday, dipping under $68 a ton. The CFR South Ch ...
Sunday, 06 July 14
PANAMAX INDEX BEING THE BIGGEST GAINER THIS WEEK; UP 52.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: This week there was some positive signs in all the sectors. The Panamax index being the biggest gainer this week after losing for sev ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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