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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 May 14
SUB BIT-FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports ...
Monday, 05 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR AVERAGE Q3 14 DELIVERIES: LOST 0.82% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 0.82 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.20 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 04 May 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE SHOWING POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market is seems to be some recovery as cape index has increased by 7.84 pct week on week. Cape index closed at 1829 po ...
Friday, 02 May 14
ADARO ENERGY STARTS YEAR 2014 WELL DESPITE CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the second largest Indonesian coal miner's revenue increased 14% to US$ 845 million due to higher sales volume, ...
Friday, 02 May 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT -0.1%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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