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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 12 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING TO FIND FIRM FOOTING
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be weak and the BDI closed slightly lower at 997 points or fell 1.96 pct week on week. The cape in ...
Friday, 09 May 14
RBCT SHIPPED 5.4 MMT OF COAL IN APRIL
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest coal export terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million to ...
Friday, 09 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET: BANKRUPTCY TONNAGE UNLEASHED
Drewry’s latest Dry Bulk Forecaster saw freight rates on most routes declined in 2014’s first quarter as the previous quarter’ ...
Friday, 09 May 14
UNITED STATES COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY SLIDES TO 82.4 MMST IN APRIL
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 08 May 14
'TRIAL BY MEDIA, TRIAL BY LAW' - A REPORT FROM TRACK 1 OF BIMCO'S ANNUAL CONFERENCE DUBAI 2014
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Aiming to bring a very different type of event into their annual conference, BIMCO presented ‘Double Jeopardy &n ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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