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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 May 14
USA COAL CONFERENCE
Press Release: IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of information and analysis, will host the Coal USA Conference, June 18-20, 2014, ...
Wednesday, 14 May 14
COAL PRICES IN CHINA HAVE DROPPED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE END-2008
COALspot.com: Coal prices in China have dropped to their lowest levels since end-2008, Fitch says in its latest rating report on one of the coal ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
NPC COAL EXPORT VOLUMES PLUNGE TO 2.48 MMT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 12 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Quee ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it wo ...
Monday, 12 May 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT AROUND 1 MMT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL DURING AUGUST 2014 THROUGH NOVEMBER 2014
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.050 million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open t ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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