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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 May 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN MAY CRASHES THROUGH $74
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down again the coal bench mark price by US$ 1.21 / MT to ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY POSITIVE GAIN
Chartering (Wet: Softer- / Dry: Stable+)
The Dry Bulk market has noted another weekly positive gain, driven by the Capesize segment, but we ne ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
SGX ENHANCES ITS COMMODITIES PRODUCT OFFERING
COALspot.com: SGX is building up its bulk commodity product offerings with 9 more derivative contracts over the next 2 months, subject to regula ...
Tuesday, 06 May 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORT SLIPS 7.92% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 5 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland ...
Monday, 05 May 14
HUANENG CLEAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE HAS CONFIRMED TO SPEAK AT CCF2014
Press Release: Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12,13, 2014 in Beijing, China. We are glad to invite ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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