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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 02 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWING SIGNS OF COMEBACK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market which has been hovering below the 1,000-point market (BDI) during the past couple of weeks, could be exhibiting signs of a s ...
Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force o ...
Thursday, 01 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL REELING UNDER PRESSURE FROM VARIOUS FACTORS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's revival is still overdue, as the industry's benchmark, the BDI is still lagging below the 1,000-point mark. In fac ...
Wednesday, 30 April 14
FREIGHT MARKET FOR DRY BULKERS STILL REMAINS WEAK - INTERMODAL
One week after the Easter holiday and the celebration for the resurrection of Christ, everybody expected to see a similar sign of a revival in t ...
Tuesday, 29 April 14
Q4 SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 1.07 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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