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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 29 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 3.03 MILLION TONS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 28 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Tuesday, 29 April 14
Q2 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST 0.29% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 0.29 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.43 per mt as o ...
Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government ...
Sunday, 27 April 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market seems to have bottomed out and saw some marginal gains in all segments, said Capt. Reddy of Vistaar Shipping In ...
Friday, 25 April 14
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 19 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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