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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 April 14
INDONESIAN MARCH COAL EXPORT VOLUME SURGE 9.12% TO 35.54 MMT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.9 ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
NEWCASTLE WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FELL 13.33% THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 21 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q1'15 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q4 2014 AND Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED MARGINALLY HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 PRICES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 0.87 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.15 per mt as ...
Monday, 21 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET UPS AND - MOST RECENTLY - DOWNS OFFERS NO ROOM FOR RELAXING AMONG DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's latest demise, with the market retrating once again, since the end of March, has come at a time, when most ship owners ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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