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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 20 April 14
FREIGHT RATES END WEEK ON WEAK NOTE - VISTAAR
Wish you all Happy Easter.
The freight market continued to its downwards as BDI was fell 7.187 percent to 930 points week on week.
The ...
Friday, 18 April 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 1% TO 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 17 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET ON RETREAT MODE, WHILE NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY STALLS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on retreating this week, a pattern which emerged since late March. Yesterday the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended yet a ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
INDONESIA'S FEBRUARY 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME FELL 2.41%
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.77* billio ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
Q1 2014 : TERMS OF FREIGHT RATES THE PERFORMANCE IN THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOT MET THE HIGH EXPECTATIONS - INTERMODAL
This year the dates for the celebration of Easter will coincide for the Orthodox and the Catholic, so we are already seeing most people in the m ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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