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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 14 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 14 April 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 60.12 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 14 April 14
INDONESIA'S Q1 COAL PRODUCTION LITTLE CHANGED EVEN WITH PRICE DROP - INVESTOR DAILY
Indonesia’s coal production by volume in the first quarter remained little changed from the same period last year despite the decline in t ...
Monday, 14 April 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN FOR THE MONTH & WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.18 per mt as ...
Monday, 14 April 14
CHINA'S MEASURES TO STIMULATE ECONOMY'S GROWTH COULD OFFER ROOM FOR STABILITY IN SHIPPING MARKETS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Since the outbreak of the 2008-crisis, the shipping industry, in most of its aspects, i.e. dry bulk and tanker markets alike, has been dealing w ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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