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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 19 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST 2.49% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.49 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.35 per mt as on F ...
Sunday, 18 May 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady with the BDI was closed slightly higher at 1027 points or up 3.00 pct week on week.
The Cape ...
Friday, 16 May 14
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 60K MT OF LOW VOLATILE BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 60,000 Metric Tons (MT) of low volatile bitumi ...
Friday, 16 May 14
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 15 May 14
PANAMAX : SHORT PERIOD UP TO ONE YEAR REPORTED IN THE 12.000-12.500 RANGE - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Supra and handy market seems to be affected by the recent holidays in Singapore which still relatively quiet. There are some Indo / ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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