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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seabo ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP 39.11 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 19 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with sl ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY CLAIMS PARAGON SHIPPING'S HEAD MICHAEL BODOUROGLOU
The dry bulk market is bound for a recovery in the coming weeks, as the market will be better balanced, said Mr. Michael Bodouroglou, Chairman and ...
Monday, 19 May 14
INDO COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON WEEK AND ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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