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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 26 May 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP Q1' 15 DELIVERIES CLOSED AT US$ 59.40 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 26 May 14
Q3 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST 2.24% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.24 percent month on month and closed at US$ 73.88 per mt as on F ...
Monday, 26 May 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY RISES BY 78% IN DWT TONNAGE OVER THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE YEARS, AS OWNERS INVEST$40.5 BN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have plunged into newbuilding orders during the first four months of the year, as overall newbuilding business ended for the first four ...
Sunday, 25 May 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM SOUTH KALIMANTAN TO EAST COAST INDIAN PORTS WERE ASSESSED AT $9.50/MT
COALspot.com: The BDI was closed at 964 points down by 6.13 pct week on week. The Cape Index was lost 172 points or 11.24% week on week and closing ...
Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appe ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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