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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 June 14
SKULD: DIVERSIFICATION AND A ROBUST BOTTOM LINE
In February, I was delighted to ring in the new policy year with the Skuld team following a solid renewal round and a strong year. 2013 was, in man ...
Monday, 02 June 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 02 June 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP WAS SHOWING A POSITIVE MOVE IN Q4, INSTEAD OF THIS WEEK'S WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 3.39 percent month on month and closed at US$ 72.65 per mt as on F ...
Sunday, 01 June 14
INDO - INDIA SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATES CONTINUED TO DOWN THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft this past week as all sectors soften particularly Panamax index was lost 129 points or 12.88% week on wee ...
Friday, 30 May 14
CLEAN COAL PROCESSING & CONVERSION ASIA SUMMIT 2014
Clean Coal Processing & Conversion Asia Summit 2014 will be held on Nov 20-21st, 2014 in Jakarta, Indonesia.
With the cooperation of ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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