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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 07 June 14
U.S. MONTHLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN MAY 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 06 June 14
RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 4.221 MMT OF COAL TO SOUTHERN ASIAN COUNTRIES IN MAY
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.58 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
RBCT SOUTH AFRICA SHIPPED 21% LESS COAL IN APRIL COMPARED TO MARCH EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PANAMAX : THIS WEEK STARTED IN A SLOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
After last week's silent and unexciting week we see some more activity this week, especially from the South American market. The rates ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 2.91 MMT OF COAL IN THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The figure constitutes a 4.30 percent higher compared to the previous week, following a week on week decreased of 19.13 percent recor ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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