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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 12 June 14
HANDY : TA MARKET IS CONTINUING SOUTH WITH A DECREASE OF 26% W-O-W
Handy
The week started off with holidays in most European countries and the TA market is continuing south with a decrease of 26% w-o-w. We do see ...
Thursday, 12 June 14
CONSOLIDATION IS THE ' NAME OF THE GAME' WHEN IT COMES TO SHIPYARDS ACROSS ASIA - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Intense competition, a swelling of new greenfield shipyards over the past few years mainly in China, especially prior to the 2008 global financial ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME AND REVENUE SLIPS 2.75% AND 6.73% RESPECTIVELY IN APRIL
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.8* b ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
BPI TOUCHING A NEW LOW FOR THE YEAR
The Dry Bulk market closed off the week positively, on the back of firming Capesize rates, while the market overall continues to face a very challe ...
Monday, 09 June 14
GOVT GETS TOUGH ON ILLEGAL MINING, SUSPENDS LICENSES - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has temporarily suspended the licenses of 62 mineral and coal transportation companies as part of its efforts to curb illegal mining ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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