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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 16 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.34 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.05 per mt a ...
Sunday, 15 June 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES FALL FURTHER ON LACK OF DEMANDS - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The BDI softened this week as all segments fell this week. The Panamax sector being most affected. The Cape index was down 3.51 pct w ...
Friday, 13 June 14
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 3% IN WEEK THAT ENDED JUNE 7, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 13 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON FALLING, DESPITE RESPITE OF THE CAPESIZE SECTOR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on its lacklustre performance overall, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) still hovering below the 1,000 point mark. Yest ...
Thursday, 12 June 14
INDONESIA SETS HBA FOR MONTH OF JUNE AT US$ 73.64
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised up first time in last four months the coal bench mark price. ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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