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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 June 14
INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3,Q4 OF 2014 AND Q1 2015: LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 continue last week’s trend or lost on day, week and on month according to Asia ...
Monday, 09 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP Q3 14 DELIVERIES LOST 4.61% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.62 per mt a ...
Sunday, 08 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR PANAMXES TO REMAIN VOLATILE; NO IMPROVEMENTS SEEN OVER THE WEEK
COALspot.com: Cape index increase pushes BDI index to 989 points week on week. The BDI firmed up by 5.88 pct and closed at 989 points week ended 6 ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
EVERYTHING CHANGES, AND NOTHING ABIDES - HERACLITUS
A couple of weeks ago, and while everyone was focusing on the struggling freight market, Russia and China made history by signing a three-decade lo ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
FIRST BITE AT ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE - BIMCO
In recent years a number of countries have introduced anti-corruption legislation which, unfortunately, fails to recognise the practical implicatio ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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