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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 May 14
US COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 29 May 14
PEABODY ENERGY CHAIRMAN RECEIVES WCA AWARD
The World Coal Association has presented Gregory H. Boyce, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), with the 2014 Chairm ...
Thursday, 29 May 14
HANDY : THE SUPRAS ARE BEING TRADED AROUND 13K FOR SHORTER UPTO 1 YEAR PERIOD
Handy
The week started off with bank holidays in London and very little happening. This trend has continued and we believe it will continue into ...
Wednesday, 28 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure during this past week, with all indices pointing down compared to the previous Friday. Th ...
Tuesday, 27 May 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.13% LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 26 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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